September-2018: QRA of Natural Gas Debottleneck Project

RIMPL was awarded a contract to perform a P+IRA assessment of time and cost contingencies for a Natural Gas processing plant in south western Victoria. The process was conducted during September and October. As well as helping the client to quantify contingencies, the schedule optimisation services RIMPL provided as part of the process helped the project team set the timing for a shutdown and assess the timing for the installation of additional compression capacity.

The analysis supported decision making for the client in commercial negotiations with a customer.


June-18: Support of Visit to Australia by John K Hollmann

RIMPL supported and helped organise a speaking and teaching tour of the East Coast of Australia by John K Hollmann, distinguished Life Member of AACE International, recipient in 2018 of AACE's Lifetime Achievement Award and author of the seminal book "Project Risk Quantification" (PRQ), reviewed by RIMPL in its 2016 Newsletter. RIMPL represents John Hollmann's company Validation Estimating, Inc. in Australia and New Zealand. John presented to Australian Cost Engineering Society (ACES) Chapter meetings in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane and met with senior executives in each city. He also taught a three day course based on PRQ at Engineers Australia's Melbourne office, attended by 18 people from the three states, including RIMPL Directors Colin Cropley and Peter Downie. Arising from this training, RIMPL devised a methodology to combine John Hollmann's Parametric assessment of Systemic Risk with RIMPL's Integrated cost & schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) methodology, creating the hybrid P+IRA methodology. RIMPL has been using this P+IRA methodology in its engagements by clients since then.

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May-18 to First Quarter 2019: Pharmaceutical Plant project QRA Services Engagement

RIMPL was engaged to deliver Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) services to quantify time and cost contingencies for the design, procurement and construction of a major pharmaceutical plant project in Victoria. RIMPL has been supporting this project since the end of 2017 when a first meeting was held. The Critical Path Method based Monte Carlo Simulation assessment of cost and schedule risk is new to the client and an extended QRA readiness process has been occurring through the year.

The process culminated in late November and early December in a trial Parametric + Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (P+IRA, see June-18 news item) and delivery of a report. The full P+IRA process is due to be performed in Q1 2019.


April-18 to September 2018: Lithium Project QRA Services Engagement

An order was received by RIMPL in response to a proposal lodged in February to deliver Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) services to quantify time and cost contingencies for the design, procurement and construction of a lithium hydroxide production plant megaproject in Western Australia.

The engagement was to have occurred in June, but the client deferred the QRA for three months. The services were delivered in August and September, at which time RIMPL was able to utilise its hybrid Parametric + Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (P+IRA) methodology (see June-18 news item).


March-18: Defence Support Services Panel

RIMPL was notified by its client Red Bay Consulting that as suppliers of Risk and Issue Management Services, RIMPL is part of a Defence Support Services (DSS) panel. Red Bay are co-developers and providers of the sucessful Schedule Compliance Risk Assessment Methodology (SCRAM) system, developed for defence sector projects to assess such projects and determine the areas where improvement is most needed to recover schedule slippage.

A 2012 Gartner Survey found that "The single most common reason that projects are considered a failure is because they are substantially late."


February-18: John K Hollmann appoints RIMPL to represent him in Australia and New Zealand, coming to Australia

Well-known and respected quantitative risk analysis specialist and author of the important book "Project Risk Quantification", John K Hollmann PE, CCP, CEP, DRMP has appointed RIMPL to represent him and his company Validation Estimating, LLC in Australia and New Zealand. John has given an enormous amount of his professional time to AACE International to edit and contribute to various Recommended Practices, including 10 years of effort in the creation and editing of the first edition (2006) of "Total Cost Management Framework", the systems engineering foundation of all AACE's knowledge base and RPs. More about John is included in RIMPL's review of his book, in our December 2016 Newsletter.

John is particularly keen to educate senior executives about the importance of quantifying project risk realistically and to teach project risk specialists how to perform the Hybrid Parametric + Expected Value schedule and cost contingency methodology described in his book.

To this end, John is visiting Australia in June to deliver a three-day training workshop in Melbourne and address Australian Cost Engineering Society (ACES) professional meetings in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. He will also meet with senior business and project executives in the three cities to explain the significance of quantifying project time and cost risk realistically.


January-18: Gateway Review & Project Audits

RIMPL's distinguished Director of Contracts and Dispute resolution, Peter L Downie has recently completed a Gateway Review for the Victorian Department of Treasury & Finance. This entailed assessing procurement of new trams. It was the second such engagement RIMPL has performed in the past few years.

Peter Downie also conducted a project audit of a significant municipal recreational facility project for a Victorian municipality during 2017. it was the second such engagement in as many years.


December-17: Risk Management of Rail Project; Project Controls and Risk Management for Marine Project

RIMPL's Principal Risk Management Consultant Matthew Dodds was engaged at the beginning of 2017 to take responsibility for Risk Management of a major rail project in Victoria. The role entails responsibility for identifing, managing and treating owner risk on the project to manufacture deliver and operate High Capacity Metro Trains for the Melbourne metropolitan rail network. The work is expected to continue through 2018 and perhaps beyond.

Since March 2017, RIMPL has been providing project controls services (estimating, cost control and planning) to a marine engineering company Argonautica Pty Ltd for a significant marine infrastructure project for a major Australian logistics company. From May RIMPL's services were extended to Risk Management. The project is expected to continue through 2018.


October-17: Expert Witness role on Megaproject

From April to November of 2017, RIMPL was engaged through legal representatives to advise the owner of a megaproject nearing completion in Australia on the calculation of project contingency. A dispute had arisen between the owner and their main contractor which was going to arbitration, in relation to the quantification of risk-based time and cost contingency. The engagement involved reviewing contract documents specifying risk based methodology for quantifying contingency and advising on the feasibility of using the methodology. It also involved giving an opinion on the main contractor's expert opinion.

The engagement concluded with RIMPL providing on request an estimate for performing the contingency assessment, including assembling an expert team to carry it out.


June-17: RIMPL Completes QRAs over Dulux project life cycle

In May/June 2017, RIMPL performed a sophisticated modelling of the completion of commissioning and startup of production for the first few months of operation of Dulux Australia's new water-based paint manufacturing facility at Merrifield, on the northern edge of Melbourne. The object was to enable Dulux to decide the timing of transfer of manufacturing capacity from their Brisbane plant to the new Melbourne plant. The engagement involved modelling probabilistically the production ramp-ups of the range of main paint products taking into account the uncertainties of completion of the plant and assessments of the uncertainties of ramp-ups of production of each product, including risk events such as shortages of raw materials.

Dulux were satisfied with the outcomes of the modelling, which completed the fourth engagement of RIMPL by Dulux, starting in December 2014 with the initial Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) before Financial Investment Decision and continuing with two further IRAs during construction prior to the Startup Production Modelling. RIMPL is pleased to have played a part in the successful completion of this important project for Dulux.


November-16: RIMPL Completes SRA Roles in Successful Train Sets Tenders

From March to June 2016, RIMPL developed Schedule Risk Analyses (SRAs) for Downer EDI Rail, the lead partner in the Evolution Rail Consortium bidding for the Victorian Government's High Capacity Metro Train (HCMT) tender to build, own and operate 65 train sets (each 7 carriages) to run on the Melbourne metropolitan rail network. Other partners in the consortium are CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles (the world's largest manufacturer of trains) and Plenary Group (a Canadian Public Private Partnership specialist well experienced in Australia in financial packaging of PPPs). RIMPL developed SRAs for the overall design, procurement, manufacture, local assembly, testing and handover of the 65 train sets and for the design and construction of a training and maintenance facility for the HCMT trains near Pakenham. Further revisions were made to the SRA modeling between August and October, in response to revised Government requirements.

In July 2016, RIMPL also developed at short notice for Downer EDI Rail an SRA model for the Sydney Growth Trains tender for the NSW Government. This involved the design, procurement, manufacture, assembly, testing and handover of 24 train sets, along with modifications to a maintenance facility.

Both tenders were successful, for which RIMPL congratulates Downer EDI Rail!


February-16: Senior Client Praise for RIMPL's collaborative modelling work

"... I'm extremely proud of what we accomplished and the impact that your work had. It was the key factor that put our business on track and established our reputation as an upstream business unit that could reliably deliver very very complex and challenging operations in one of the most challenging environments you'll ever find in upstream.

For me, this is one of the most successful collaborations I've been involved in and I'm glad you are able to use your experience with us to build your business. It's a fantastic service you deliver. Many thanks for being patient and flexible with us to adapt your approach so we could model our activity set."


December-15: Coal Seam Gas FEED Project

RIMPL were awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) of an expansion of Santos' GLNG Upstream coal seam gas field wells, surface facilities and corresponding hub facilities for compression and gas treatment in the Wandoan area.

In a similar process to that described below for the Earlier Roma area project, RIMPL created an IRA model, facilitated risk workshop sessions with the project team to obtain input ranges for the IRA model integrating the schedule, the overlaid cost estimate and mapped-in risk events. The analysis was performed including probabilistic weather calendars based on historical Bureau of Meteorology rainfall data. The report included all required probabilistic schedule and cost forecasts and identified and ranked the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project, to enable optimising of project risk.


27-Nov-15: Appointment of RIMPL to Government Advisory Panels

After a tender process that began in April 2015, The Australian Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development (DIRD) has appointed RIMPL to two advisory panels related to the assessment of Cost Contingency.

The first panel is to review and assess when requested, cost contingency for infrastructure projects being proposed by states and territories for commonwealth funding. The second panel is to provide when requested, "Theory and Policy Advice on Contingency Estimation (Probabilistic/Quantitative Risk Analysis)".

The appointment runs until at least 30Jun18, with the option for DIRD to extend it for a further 2 years.


May-15: Oil & Gas Exploration Project

RIMPL performed an Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) in April and May 2015 of an oil & gas exploration project to drill two wells in Papua New Guinea.

RIMPL conducted risk workshop sessions with the project team to assess the potential range of project capital cost and schedule outcomes including risk events and risk factors. The analysis was performed including major weather uncertainties governing flying hours for helicopters providing the only means of supply of equipment and materials to the drilling sites for two proposed wells. Scope included construction of the wellpads at each site, moving the drilling rig into each site and erecting the drill rig, drilling the wells and returning the disassembled drill rig back to its point of hire. The analysis included modelling logistics uncertainties to supply the materials and equipment in a timely way to the forward base for the helicopters.


March-15: Coal Seam Gas FEED Project

RIMPL were awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) of an expansion of Santos' GLNG Upstream coal seam gas field wells, surface facilities and corresponding hub facilities for compression and gas treatment in the Roma area.

RIMPL created an IRA model from the project schedule, estimate and risk register. RIMPL facilitated risk workshop sessions with the project team to obtain input ranges of project capital cost line items and schedule task durations together with risk events. The analysis was performed including probabilistic weather calendars based on over a century of rainfall data. The report included all required probabilistic schedule and cost forecasts and identified and ranked the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project, to enable optimising of project risk.


29-Jan-15: Manufacturing Project

RIMPL has been awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule risk analysis of a manufacturing project in Australia.

RIMPL has conducted risk workshop sessions with the project team to assess the potential range of project capital cost and schedule outcomes including risk events and risk factors. The analysis has been performed including weather uncertainties and the report has been submitted including all required probabilistic schedule and cost forecasts and identifying and ranking the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project.


10-Sep-14: Gas Condensates Project

RIMPL have been awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule risk analysis of a gas condensates recovery project outside Australia.

RIMPL will work with the project team to assess the potential range of project capital cost and schedule outcomes, as well as the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project.


12-Sep-14: International Conferences

RIMPL's Managing Director, Colin Cropley, will be presenting at a range of local and international conferences between October and November.

Milan Conference 20-22Oct14: International Cost Engineering Council IX World Congress. Subject of paper: 'Re-engineering Project Budgeting and Management of Risk';

Bangkok Conference, 12-13Nov14: AACE's International Total Cost Management Conference. Subject of paper: 'Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil and Gas Exploration';

Engineers Australia Convention 2014 Melbourne, 25-27Nov14 ' Mastering Complex Projects Conference. Subject of first paper: 'Developing and delivering complex projects using quantitative risk analysis'. Subject of second paper: 'Australian lessons for developing and delivering large and complex projects'

To find out more about any of Colin's presentations, please contact us at info@riskinteg.com


18-July-14: KnowledgeBase - Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis

The third instalment of RIMPL s Knowledge Base goes live! This instalment covers Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis, dealing specifically with the topics of:
Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis Basic Concepts
Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis Process

You can help contribute to the knowledge base by contributing your comments, experience and critiques of the methods described.


14-April-14: Latest Newsletter issued


featuring:

RIMPL's new Risk Consultant, David Ekhtiari

RIMPL's newly appointed WA Representative Peter Hudson and

A detailed article comparing Combined Schedule and Cost Risk Analyses with RIMPL's Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA)'


20-March-14: RIMPL EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES

Risk Integration Management believes in providing useful information into the public domain on the underlying theory and practices of risk management and especially quantitative risk analysis. We do this in various ways, as described below.

Conferences:

RIMPL presented to the Project Management Institute's National Project Management conference PMOz in September 2013 on "Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil & Gas Exploration in Papua New Guinea". The presentation described the use of Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) to help an oil & gas explorer client improve the quality and realism of their planning and estimating. The client collaborated in the development of the presentation.

A paper based on the above work, co-authored with the client, has been accepted by the Association for Advancement of Cost Engineering International for their Annual Meeting in New Orleans in June 2014

and also for a Total Cost Management International Conference

organised by AACEI planned for November 2014 in Bangkok. The paper is titled "Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil and Gas Exploration".

RIMPL has also submitted an abstract accepted by the World Congress of the International Cost Engineering Council,

on "Re-engineering Project Budgeting and Management of Risk" in Milan in October 2014. The paper sets out reasons why too many projects still fail to achieve their projected profitability targets or even to be completed within their budgeted time and cost and explains why IRA materially improves the likelihood of project success.

It goes on to explain how extending the modelling to include project operation and revenue generation, their associated uncertainties and risk events can enable probabilistic cash flows, NPVs and IRRs to be generated. Through this the balance between probabilistic profit, break-even and unacceptable loss can be measured and the drivers quantified for risk optimisation.

Contributions to Professional Forums:

RIMPL makes regular contributions through its Directors to Risk Management forums, engaging in discussion on issues relevant to RIMPL's areas of expertise and experience, particularly quantitative project risk analysis. These include:
Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis forum on LinkedIn;
Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) LinkedIn forum;
Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis LinkedIn forum;
Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Modelling LinkedIn forum

Lecturing and presenting to Professional Associations:

RIMPL's Managing Director has been guest lecturing on Project Management topics to diploma and masters degree students at Victoria University since 1992. Topics have included Project Planning, Delivering Quality Projects and Risk Management.

He has also guest lectured at Swinburne University and RMIT University on similar topics.

For the last two years, he has guest-lectured in Risk Management at the University of Canberra to a master's degree in Procurement.

RIMPL's Managing Director has presented to professional associations from time to time including:
•Melbourne Chapter of PMI
•Australian Cost Engineering Society of Engineers Australia;
•Australian Institute of Project Management Project Controls Specific Interest Group

RIMPL's Managing Director was Chairperson of the Victorian Primavera User Group (VPUG) between 1997 and 2009, when Oracle took over control of Primavera User Groups. VPUG was the only Australian Primavera User Group independent of the Primavera dealers for most of that time.


25-Sept-13: New Contract Awarded - Pre-feasiblilty study of mine process facility

RIMPL has been awarded a contract for the provision of integrated risk analysis services, analyzing the potential cost and schedule outcomes for the construction of a mine process facility.


7-Aug-13: New Contract Awarded - Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Investment Revenue Stream

RIMPL was recently awarded a contract to analyse the riskiness of a AAA rated infrastructure asset.

This has beeen done by assessing the probability of the operators of the asset being penalised for failing to achieve a range of required service standards, which would reduce or "abate" the revenue stream generated for investors.

Each of the service standards has a prescribed set of penalties. RIMPL has statistically analysed performance data for many of these standards to determine the probabilities and cost impact ranges.

Other penalties have required the gathering of expert opinions.

The Monte Carlo risk analyses have forecast levels of penalties ranging from likely (P50) through conservative (P95) to extremely conservative (P99), commensurate with the AAA rating of the investment.


24-May-13: KnowledgeBase - Schedule Risk Analysis

The second instalment of RIMPL s Knowledge Base goes live! This instalment covers Schedule Risk Analysis, dealing specifically with the topics of:
Schedule Risk Analysis Basic Concepts
Schedule Risk Analysis Process

You can help contribute to the knowledge base by contributing your comments, experience and critiques of the methods described.


19-Apr-13: New Contract awarded - SRA Training Services

RIMPL has been awarded a contract to provide schedule risk analysis (SRA) training services over the next year to a major Australian Construction, Mining & Services contractor. RIMPLs SRA methodology has been developed and refined over the last 10 years to be one of the most robust and effective available in Australia.

The training uses Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis software, but teaches the process of SRA and how to produce realistic forecasts of project outcomes including allowance for schedule and logic uncertainty and risk events.


16-Apr-13: Knowledge Base goes live!

RIMPLs Knowledge Base goes live! Well be progressively releasing content relating to risk management & analysis, starting with instalment 1: Risk Management Basics. This release covers the broad topics of:
What is Risk Management?
Risk Management Process
Risk Analysis
Risk Attributes

You can help contribute to the knowledge base by joining us on the associated discussion threads.


05-Apr-13: New Contract awarded - Analysis of FEED Projects

RIMPL has been awarded a contract to conduct a series of integrated cost and schedule risk analyses over the next year on a major CSG project in Australia. The analyses focus on the delivery of various component packages of Upstream facilities relating to the project as they emerge from the FEED process.


25-Mar-13: New Contract awarded - Hydrocarbon Exploration

RIMPL has been awarded a contract to conduct a series of integrated cost and schedule risk analyses relating to hydrocarbon exploration in Papua New Guinea. The analyses are focused on seismic survey, well-site construction and drilling, taking into account all known sources of uncertainty and risk events. The exploration work occurs in an environment of high uncertainty and cost, with very adverse weather conditions for much of the year and the need to use helicopters for all site transport. Previous work by the RIMPL team for the same client has forecast much more realistic outcomes than deterministic planning and budgeting.


21-Mar-13: New Contract awarded - Construction Tender

RIMPL has been awarded a contract by a major Australian construction company to conduct quantitative risk analysis on a tender for the construction of an LNG Plant in Australia.


16-Mar-13: Announcing Launch of Risk Integration Management Pty Ltd

We are pleased to announce the launch of an innovative risk management and project controls services business, Risk Integration Management Pty Ltd (RIMPL).

RIMPL provides risk management and analysis consulting services as well as skilled project controls and strategic project advisory services and personnel.

RIMPL continues services formerly provided by Crescent PSS Pty Ltd (1996-2008) and Hyder Project Management Group (2008-2012).

Risk Management Services

RIMPL specialises in advanced risk management and analysis, integrating qualitative and quantitative risk analyses for cost and schedule contingency forecasting using Monte Carlo simulation. RIMPLs proprietary Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) methodology and software uniquely provide the means of quantifying project time and cost uncertainty and identifying and ranking the drivers of these uncertainties. They have been used on some of the biggest projects in Australia and are available to clients, large or small, whether project owners or contractors, immediately.

Project Controls consulting services and personnel

RIMPL through its subsidiary business Contract Project Services (CPS) provides a wide range of skilled and experienced project services personnel and advisory services.

We specialise in planning / scheduling and cost control in the resources, oil & gas and engineering construction sectors. We offer skilled senior project advisory services in project and contract management strategy, forensic scheduling, claim management and contract formation and administration.