Schedule Risk Analysis

Risk Integration Management's experienced practitioners have been performing schedule risk analysis for clients since 2003. We've analysed client schedules across many industries, using both detailed and summary schedules.

What is Schedule Risk Analysis?

Schedule risk analysis is a method of assessing the range of potential outcomes within a project schedule using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. It is primarily used to assess requirements for schedule contingency and exposure to delay risk, as well as to expose schedule risk drivers / factors that drive probabilistic outcomes. Monte Carlo Schedule Analysis has five key benefits over ordinary deterministic planning of project schedules:

  • It provides us with probabilistic forecasts for the dates of activities within a schedule.
  • It allows for estimating uncertainty by expressing ranges of potential durations for tasks instead of single task durations.
  • It allows for the incorporation of risk events (things which may or may not happen) in addition to the known scope and execution plan.
  • It allows us to identify primary, secondary, and tertiary critical paths through a plan, rather than simply focusing on the most prominent path, including an evaluation of the most time-sensitive tasks.
  • It allows for the incorporation of probabilistic logic and logic branching representing different project paths that may or may not happen.
  • It acts as a kind of “stress-test” for the schedule, helping to identify areas in which logic may be missing or corrupt.

Our Schedule Risk Analysis Services

RIMPL offer class-leading services in schedule risk analysis using Oracle’s Primavera Risk Analysis (aka Pertmaster). Schedule risk analysis is a complex process and requires a trained professional operator to get it right. There are many tools on the market that claim to simplify the analysis process, but they typically do so by sacrificing the integrity of the model.

Our respected and sophisticated techniques provide highly visible cause and effect through detailed documentation of inputs and outputs of the schedule risk analysis process. Further, we spend the time with you to help you understand the behaviour of the model, including those elements that may be the biggest determinants of uncertainty within your project. Understanding these risk factors / risk drivers helps aid understanding of the final result, but also helps you identify areas in which targeted actions might have the biggest impact on the end date of your project.

To learn more about our methodology (or answer any questions you may have), visit our Schedule Risk Analysis Knowledge Base or Contact us to arrange a quote or meeting.