RIMPL MD Speaks at Forum Safran 23

Risk Integration Management MD Colin Cropley was invited to attend and give a presentation at the annual User Conference of Safran Software AS at Stavanger Norway in mid-November, 2023.

The topic chosen was "Include Past Project Performance in QRAs or AI will get you!"
The conference was very stimulating with several presentations referring to AI.  Papers covered Safran Project as well as Safran Risk and Safran's recently added Qualitative Risk Analysis application, Safran Risk Manager.

Contingencies assessed for Green Hydrogen & Ammonia Project

In October 2023, RIMPL facilitated cost and schedule contingency assessments of a project to produce Hydrogen and Ammonia for a joint venture between Fortescue Metals Group and Incitec Pivot based at Incitec Pivot's Gibson Island site in Brisbane. The hydrogen was to be produced by electrolysing water to dissociate it into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy. Hydrogen piped to Incitec Pivot's refurbished Ammonia plant was to be combined with nitrogen from an air separation plant using the Haber Bosch process.  The ammonia was to be exported by ship docking at a refurbished wharf on the Brisbane River.  The Feasibility Study Estimate and Schedule were inputs to a Parametric + Expected Value (P+EV) Contingency Assessment, using methodology and software provided under agreement by Validation Estimating LLC (ValidEst of Virginia USA - Principal John K Hollmann, using Excel(R) & @Risk(R) Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) software).  In parallel, RIMPL used the P+EV outputs to assess schedule risk using Parametric + Schedule Risk Analysis (P+SRA methodology developed by RIMPL and using Safran Risk(R)  Critical Path Method MCS software).
The future of the project, according to FMG's main shareholder Mr. Andrew Forrest, is dependent upon the price of renewable electricity in Queensland being low enough to make the project viable.

BHP West Musgrave Copper / Nickel Project re-assessed

In August / September 2023, RIMPL performed a Parametric + CPM-based Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (P+IRA) based on ValidEst P+EV methodology and software combined with RIMPL's P+IRA Methodology using Safran Risk(R) CPM-based ICSRA software.

The mine, to produce copper and nickel mineral concentrates in central Australia, had been assessed by similar P+IRA methodology to assess cost and schedule contingencies the previous year for Financial Investment Decision (FID) for OZ Minerals Ltd, prior to acquisition of OZ Minerals by BHP.  OZ Minerals had commenced execution of the project, but significant scope change had caused the project to be re-estimated and a further risk analysis to be requested of RIMPL.

Safran Risk SRA Training Course run for Transport for NSW

In August 2023, RIMPL delivered a 2 day training course in the use of Safran Risk (R) for Schedule Risk Analysis to six risk analysts employed by Transport for NSW (TfNSW).  The training course was developed by RIMPL over several years, based on RIMPL's experience developing and delivering SRA training courses for Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) from 2004 to 2015.  More information about the course is available in the Training page of this site.  The training was delivered in accordance with an agreement with Allinno Pty Ltd, the Australia & New Zealand distributors of Safran Risk.